What is the issue?
- In the latest estimates of economic growth (for the financial year that ended in March 2021), India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 7.3% in 2020-21.
- It is imperative, in this context, to understand the reasons for this contraction in GDP.
How could this be approached?
- There are two ways to view this contraction in GDP:
- To look at this as an outlier - India, like most other countries, is facing a once-in-a-century pandemic
- To look at what has been happening to the Indian economy over the last decade, and more precisely over the last 7 years
- Notably, between the early 1990s until the pandemic hit the country, India grew at an average of around 7% every year.
- So, the latest GDP data suggests that India’s economy had been steadily worsening during the current regime even before the Covid-19 pandemic.
- The “fundamentals of the economy” (a bunch of economy-wide variables showing an economy’s health) suggest this, as discussed below.
How has the GDP been?





