📰 Reform bail law, but make the right diagnosis first
Any reimagination of the law needs to examine the exact nature of what is causing large-scale undertrial incarceration
•Over 75% of India’s prison population are undertrials while overcrowding in Indian prisons stands at 118%. These stark realities are often cited to represent the scale of the crisis in India’s criminal justice system. The Supreme Court of India recently acknowledged, in Satender Kumar Antil vs CBI, the ineffectiveness of India’s bail system and its contribution to this crisis. The Court noted that despite repeated guidelines on bail law, things have not changed much on the ground. The Court provided comprehensive guidelines on laws related to bail, such as mandating timelines for the disposal of bail applications and laying emphasis on the need to enact a separate legislation. The judgment noted that crowding jails with undertrial prisoners ignored the principle of ‘presumption of innocence’ and that ‘bail not jail’ should be the norm. However, there is still a need to reflect on why these established principles are honoured more in their breach than observance.
•Any reimagination of the law on bail needs to first understand the exact nature of the problem that results in large-scale undertrial incarceration. This assessment needs to be based on multiple parameters and we have no real empirical evidence on how each of these impacts the issue. What proportion of undertrials are applying for bail? What proportion of bail applications are accepted or rejected, and on what grounds? Is bail compliance a far bigger problem than denial of bail? These are some fundamental empirical questions which need answers. An effective bail law must be based on the correlation of these answers with variables such as the demographics of undertrials, category of offences and timelines for bail, and also address socio-economic and structural barriers. The foundations of the current bail law ensure that it is anti-poor and disproportionately burdens those from marginalised backgrounds. The solutions we intend to craft must be based on a deep and realistic understanding of the problem.
Lack of safeguards
•The Court averred that effective enforcement of safeguards against arbitrary arrest would eliminate the need to seek bail from courts. However, these safeguards exclude a significant proportion of arrested persons, especially those from disadvantaged sections of society, who form the large majority of undertrial prisoners. For example, the arrest of a person is justified as ‘necessary’ if the police have ‘reasons to believe’ that it is required to ensure their presence in court. Such vague justifications put migrants, persons without assets or those with no contact with family at higher risk of arrest because of their socio-economic conditions. Data from the Fair Trial Programme (FTP) in Yerwada and Nagpur central prisons can be instructive here. Of the undertrials (2,313) represented by the FTP , 18.50% were migrants, 93.48% did not own any assets, 62.22% did not have any contact with family, and 10% had a history of previous incarceration. Evidently, a significant proportion from the sample would be unjustifiably excluded from protections against arrest and contribute to the large proportion of undertrials in our prisons.
Approach to bail adjudication
•The power to grant bail is largely based on the court’s discretion and depends on the facts of each case. The Supreme Court has time and again laid down principles for guiding the exercise of such discretion by courts in deciding bail applications. While these guidelines lay stress upon the need to release applicants on bail, they also validate the denial of bail or imposition of onerous bail conditions based on the gravity of the offence, character of the accused and likelihood of the accused absconding or tampering with evidence. In all such cases, courts rarely exercise their discretion for granting bail and are likely to take a more stringent approach against release on bail. Despite existing guidelines, courts do not usually record reasons for rejecting bail; the rationale behind how courts factor in offence-based and person-based considerations in deciding bail applications remains unclear.
•This is important because marginalised persons bear the brunt of these broad exceptions. They are either denied bail or granted bail with onerous conditions, in absolute disregard of their realities. Bail conditions in the nature of cash bonds, surety bond, proof of property ownership and solvency, as is commonplace, are at odds with the reality of undertrial prisoners languishing in jails.
Challenges in bail compliance
•A large number of undertrials continue to remain in prison despite being granted bail due to challenges in complying with bail conditions. Lack of means to arrange for money/property and local sureties are the most significant reasons accounting for an undertrial’s inability to comply with bail conditions, realities borne out by our experience in the FTP. However, factors such as lack of residence and identity proof, abandonment by family and limitations in navigating the court system also undermine an undertrial’s ability to comply with bail conditions. Compliance with bail conditions and ensuring presence in courts for the overwhelmingly structurally disadvantaged undertrials requires constant handholding, as is evident by the FTP’s interventions in the past three years. This is a crucial aspect of ensuring last mile delivery of justice that the extant bail law does not consider.
•Our experience shows that in 14% of cases, undertrials were unable to comply with bail conditions and remained in prison despite being granted bail. In almost 35% of these cases, it took over a month after obtaining the bail for undertrials to comply with bail conditions and secure their release.
Flawed assumptions
•The bail system, as it currently operates, has flawed assumptions that every arrested person will be propertied or have access to propertied social connections. It presumes that the risk of financial loss is necessary to ensure the presence of the accused in court. Such assumptions have the effect of rendering the rule of ‘bail not jail’ meaningless for a significant proportion of undertrial persons. For any bail law to effectively provide relief, a careful re-evaluation of the said presumptions is imperative. There is an urgent need for bail reform but it would be counterproductive to undertake a reform exercise without first developing the empirical basis to understand and diagnose the problem at hand.
•Medha Deo and Mayank Labh are with the Fair Trial Programme, an undertrial legal aid initiative at Project 39A, National Law University Delhi. The programme provides legal aid to undertrials in Pune and Nagpur central prisons
Why have fresh provisions been issued by the Supreme Court? What are the directions ordered with respect to undertrial prisoners?
•A division bench of the Supreme Court in Satender Kumar Antil vs CBI has laid down fresh guidelines on arrests in order to have strict compliance of the provisions of Section 41 and 41A of the Code of Criminal Procedure, 1973.
•Section 41 provides for the circumstances in which arrest can be made by the police without a warrant. Section 41A provides for the requirement of a notice to be sent by the investigating agencies before making an arrest in certain conditions.
•The High Courts have also been directed to undertake the exercise of finding out the undertrial prisoners who are not able to comply with bail conditions.
•The story so far: On July 11, a division bench of the Supreme Court of India in Satender Kumar Antil vs CBI laid down fresh guidelines on arrests in order to have strict compliance with the provisions of Section 41 and 41A of the Code of Criminal Procedure, 1973. These guidelines are in addition to the earlier ones which the apex court had already laid down in the case of Arnesh Kumar vs State of Bihar (2014). The Court in the present case has also emphasised upon separate legislation on the law relating to bail and has also issued specific directions in this regard. On July 16, even the Chief Justice of India (CJI) cautioned against “hasty and indiscriminate arrests”. He further commented on the delay in bails and the plight of undertrial prisoners.
How is a person arrested?
•Arrest in its simplest form is defined as, “when one is taken and restrained from his liberty”. The police has wide powers to arrest under the Code of Criminal Procedure, 1973. In the Joginder Kumar (1994) verdict, the Court had stated that “arrest and detention in police lock-up of a person can cause incalculable harm to the reputation and self-esteem of a person”. Further, in the case of Arnesh Kumar, the apex Court had rightly observed that “arrest brings humiliation, curtails freedom and cast scars forever”. In recent times, there have been several controversies regarding the arrest and subsequent bail of accused persons.
•With regard to the Satender Kumar Antil case, the Court has issued specific directions and has also called for a compliance report. The Court said that the investigating agencies and their officers are duty-bound to comply with the mandate of Section 41 and 41A and the directions issued in the Arnesh Kumar case.
What are Sections 41 and 41A of the Code of Criminal Procedure?
•Section 41 of the Code provides for the circumstances in which arrest can be made by the police without a warrant and mandates for reasons to be recorded in writing for every arrest and non-arrest. Section 41A of the Code provides for the requirement of a notice to be sent by the investigating agencies before making an arrest in certain conditions prescribed by the Code. The Court stated that any dereliction on the part of the agencies has to be brought to the notice of the higher authorities by the court followed by appropriate action. The Bench further said that the courts will have to satisfy themselves on the compliance of Section 41 and 41A. Any non-compliance would entitle the accused for grant of bail.
What are the guidelines with respect to bail?
•Regarding bail, the Court has made a specific observation in the form of an obiter that the Government of India may consider the introduction of a separate enactment, in the nature of a Bail Act, so as to streamline the grant of bails.
•As part of the new guidelines, it is clearly stated that there need not be any insistence on a bail application while considering the application under Sections 88, 170, 204 and 209 of the Code. The Court said that “there needs to be a strict compliance of the mandate laid down in the judgment of this court in Siddharth” (Siddharth vs State of U.P., 2021). It is a clear direction of the Court that bail applications ought to be disposed of within a period of two weeks except if the provisions mandate otherwise — the exception being an intervening application. The Court also said that “applications for anticipatory bail are expected to be disposed of within a period of six weeks with the exception of any intervening application”.
What steps need to be taken for compliance of these orders?
•The State and Central governments will have to comply with the directions issued by the Court from time to time with respect to the constitution of special courts. The High Court in consultation with the State governments will have to undertake an exercise on the need for special courts. The vacancies in the position of Presiding Officers of the special courts will have to be filled up expeditiously. The CJI has also raised the issue of vacant positions and infrastructural requirements in the judiciary.
What about undertrial prisoners?
•The High Courts have been directed by the apex court to identify undertrial prisoners who cannot comply with bail conditions. After doing so, appropriate action will have to be taken in the light of Section 440 of the Code, facilitating their release. Under Section 440, the amount of bond shall not be excessive, and high courts and sessions courts may reduce the amount prescribed by the magistrate or a police officer. An exercise will have to be done similarly to comply with the mandate of Section 436A of the Code, under which a person imprisoned during investigation or trial shall be released on bail on completion of half of the jail term prescribed for that offence.
📰 A global order caught up in a swirl of chaos
The Ukraine-Russia conflict is only one of the many strands altering the contours of world governance
•Adrift at the end of the 20th century, the world of the 21st century is proving to be highly chaotic. Geopolitical experts in the West confine their findings at present solely to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, believing that this alone would determine not only war and peace but also other critical aspects as well. This tends to be a myopic view, for the Ukraine-Russia conflict is only one of the many strands currently altering the contours of world governance. Significant developments are also taking place in many other regions of the globe, which will have equal if not more relevance to the future of the international governance system.
•What the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said in June 2022 at the end of a three-day gathering of G7 leaders in the Bavarian Alps, sums up the prevailing mood overall, viz., “a time of uncertainty lies ahead of us. We cannot foresee how it will end”. In this case possibly, the German Chancellor was referring only to the fallout from the Ukraine-Russia conflict, for he clearly did not reckon with the fact that many other momentous changes were taking place outside Europe, and which are already beginning to dictate the new order of things. The obsession in the West over the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, giving it an importance overriding all else, is indeed misleading.
Europe may be rudderless
•European leaders tending to look inwards is, perhaps, not surprising. Europe has been undergoing several major changes in recent months. Germany, which has steered European politics for almost two decades under Angela Merkel, now has a Chancellor (Olaf Scholz) who has hardly any foreign policy experience. Without Germany’s steadying hand, Europe would be virtually adrift in troubled waters. Emmanuel Macron may have been re-elected the President of France, but his wings have been clipped with the Opposition now gaining a majority in the French National Assembly. This has damaged his image, and Mr. Macron can hardly be expected to provide the kind of leadership that Europe needs at present. The United Kingdom is in deep trouble, if not disarray. Consequently, at a time when actual and moral issues require both deft and firm handling, Europe appears rudderless.
•Compounding this situation is the negative economic impact of the war in Ukraine. This is being felt not only in Europe but also across the globe. What is evident already is that apart from the spiralling cost of energy, food and fertilizers, quite a few countries confront the spectre of food scarcity given that Ukraine and Russia were generally viewed as the granaries of the world. Apart from this, nations do face several other problems as well, including, in some cases, a foreign exchange crisis. Many of these problems may have existed earlier but have been aggravated by the ongoing conflict. The impact is being felt now well beyond Europe.
•Six months into the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the topology of geopolitics also appears to be undergoing major changes. It is occurring in directions that were not envisaged previously. The instruments employed by the West against Russia, such as sanctions, have not had the desired impact as far as the latter is concerned. It would be a serious error of judgment if the West were to imagine that the unity and the strength displayed by the European nations (backed by the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on this occasion), has been a win-win situation. The situation in Europe is still to be decided, but what is also becoming obvious is that outside Europe, the conflict is beginning to take on a different dimension, leading to the emergence of new patchworks of relationships.
A China-Russia link
•A churn in global politics is evident. China and Russia, for instance, appear to have further cemented their relationship and the situation is fast veering towards a formal alliance. Russia’s growing closeness to China — further intensified by the Ukraine-Russia conflict — has revived memories of the 1950s Sino-Soviet alliance, and their bonhomie during the 1950s and 1960s. At the time, this had been described as a ‘lips and teeth’ relationship.
•Meanwhile, China’s growing influence in the Pacific region, including in the Indo-Pacific, and further strengthened by the entente with Russia, may hardly be a by-product of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but it has induced fresh energy into a possible conflict between two rival power blocs. Not all the efforts of the United States, including the AUKUS (Australia, the U.K. and the U.S.) and the Quad (the U.S., India, Australia and Japan), or the launch of another Indo-Pacific entity, viz., ‘Partners in the Blue Pacific’ (comprising the U.S., the U.K., Australia, New Zealand and Japan) can hope to effectively stem the winds of change sweeping across the Pacific and the Indo-Pacific. Understanding the changing nature of relationships in Asia, and considering that most Asian nations appear unwilling to take sides in the event of a conflict, is important. Unlike the unity and the strength displayed by European nations — backed by the U.S. and NATO — to checkmate Russia, and diminish its image, there is no evidence of any such unity of purpose in the event that China was to launch a conflict with Taiwan.
India and its neighbourhood
•In the prevailing atmosphere, India does find itself wedged into a difficult situation. It cannot ignore the situation created by the stronger bonds between Russia and China. While relations with China may continue to remain uncertain and unsatisfactory (for some time at least), India will need to determine whether Russia can be expected to play a role as a ‘trusted friend’ of India’s. Again, it would be too much to hope that in dealing with China, India can expect the same kind of support it may need from the Quad. China, however, seems intent on establishing its dominance and also sidelining India in Asia, which New Delhi would have discerned in the course of the virtual BRICS Summit hosted by China in June. China’s newfound confidence and its attempt to hijack the situation as part of its preparations for a new world order was very much in evidence on that occasion.
•Apart from China, India also urgently needs to come to terms with a Taliban Afghanistan. Its attempt to devise a working relationship with a Taliban Afghanistan without having to compromise with its previous policy of ‘no truck’ with the Taliban is as yet in a very nascent stage. Time is, however, of the essence.
•At this time, the democratic upsurge in Sri Lanka which has resulted in the removal of the Rajapaksas from power, presents India with a fresh set of problems. India’s relation with the previous regime could at best be termed correct, rather than cordial, but in a situation where ‘rage’ and ‘anger’ are the dominant sentiments, there is every reason for concern that even governments that have maintained a ‘hands-off’ relationship could become targets of the new forces emerging in Sri Lanka. There are also aspects of the Sinhala ‘Janata Aragalaya’ that need to be carefully studied, to ensure that its advent does not result in the emergence of an anti-India atmosphere in Sri Lanka.
Churn in West Asia
•In the 21st century, among other major developments taking place, is the kind of churn that is continuing in West Asia. The Abraham Accords in 2020, which brought about the entente between the United Arab Emirates and Israel, has been the harbinger of certain new trends in the tangled web of relationships among countries of West Asia. But even as the U.S.’s relations with Arab nations in West Asia appear to weaken, Russia and China are beginning to play key roles, with Iran as the fulcrum for establishing new relationships. Russia’s forays into West Asia have taken a quantum leap. Relations with Iran have been firmed up. China continues to steadily build on its connections with the region, and with Iran in particular.
•For its part, India has been making steady progress in enlarging its contacts and influence in West Asia. While the India-Israel relationship dates back to the 1990s, the India-UAE relationship has blossomed in the past couple of years. India-Iran relations, however, seem to have reached a stalemate of late. India has, however, been inveigled into joining a U.S.-based group, the I2U2, comprising India, Israel the UAE and the U.S. The U.S. has indicated that this body could become a ‘feature’ of the West Asian region, just like the Quad was for the Indo-Pacific. Details of the new arrangements are unclear, but it is evident that the target is Iran, as China is for the Quad, injecting yet another element of uncertainty into an already troubled region.
Nuclear deterrence
•Finally, and in the wake of western allegations about the possible use by Russia of tactical/battlefield nuclear weapons, concerns are beginning to be expressed by U.S. academics — many with close connections to the establishment — of an existing gap between India and China in terms of India’s nuclear deterrent capability. The argument being adduced is that a wide gap exists today in regard to China and India’s nuclear deterrent capabilities, and implicitly blames India for its voluntary ban on testing and its ‘no-first-use’ doctrine from making progress in this arena. What is also implied is that India could overcome the lacuna by seeking the assistance of western nations which have such capabilities and knowledge. It is unclear, as of now, whether this has any traction among officials in the West, but it is important for India to guard against such pernicious attempts at this time to undo its carefully negotiated and structured nuclear policy and doctrine, and be inveigled into any anti-China western move on this front.
📰 No room for logophobia
Wit, wisdom and retort are the attributes of a shrewd statesman and parliamentarian
•A Mullah Nasruddin tale exposes the tricky business of law. Once, Nasruddin told a king that laws do not make people righteous. The king disagreed, claiming that he could make people virtuous through the coercive power of law. On the bridge leading to the royal city, the king built a gallows. The royal decree stated: “Everyone will be interrogated at the gate. If they tell the truth, they will be allowed to enter. If they lie, they will be hanged.” When Nasruddin stepped forward, the guard asked where he was going. Nasruddin replied, “I am on my way to be hanged.” The guard did not believe him. Nasruddin smilingly said: “Well if I have told a lie, hang me.” The confused guard said, “But if we hang you for lying, we will have made what you said come true.” This ended in a Catch-22 situation and Nasruddin’s argument was vindicated.
Words deemed unparliamentary
•Ahead of the monsoon session of Parliament, the Lok Sabha Secretariat released a revised booklet comprising a list of words now deemed ‘unparliamentary’. This list includes terms such as ‘jumla jeevi (a person who makes false promises)’, ‘COVID spreader’, ‘Snoopgate’, ‘ashamed’, ‘abused’, ‘betrayed’ and ‘incompetent’. As the Nasruddin story suggests, parliamentary decorum cannot be maintained by issuing diktats; it can be nurtured only when democratic civility is expressed by the treasury benches as well as by the Opposition.
•Democracy is government by discussion, John Stuart Mill said. Mill admired the Athenian republic and tried to model modern representative government on the deliberative character of its democratic political life. The praxis of democracy is discussion, debate, and dissent. Liberal democracy favours the Atticism of Athens, where oratory was worshipped and loquaciousness was the norm, while illiberal democracies find refuge in Sparta’s laconism.
•Wit, wisdom and retort are the attributes of a shrewd statesman and parliamentarian. An anecdote about Abraham Lincoln underscores this. When Lincoln entered the Senate to give his inaugural address as U.S. President, one aristocratic senator stood up and said, “Mr. Lincoln, you should not forget that your father used to make shoes for my family.” The Senate laughed. Lincoln retorted: “Sir, I know that my father used to make shoes in your house for your family... Have you any complaint? If you have any complaint, I can make another pair of shoes. Because I know how to make shoes myself. But as far as I know, nobody has ever complained about my father’s shoes. He was a genius, a creator, and I am proud of my father.” Similarly, Ram Manohar Lohia, the socialist doyen, once stated in Parliament that Jawaharlal Nehru was not an aristocrat as he was portrayed. “I can prove that the prime minister’s grandfather was achaprasi in the Mughal court,” he said. Nehru smiled and replied, “I am glad the honourable member has, at last, accepted what I have been trying to tell him for so many years: That I am a man of the people.” An ideal parliamentarian should emulate Lincoln and Nehru.
•Dictating parliamentary lexicon does not help to constrain clever parliamentarians like Piloo Mody, the Swatantra Party’s firebrand leader. Once, in the Rajya Sabha, a Congress member kept teasing Mody. “Stop barking,” Mody shouted at the member. The Congress member pleaded with the Chair: “Sir, he’s calling me a dog. This is unparliamentary language.” The Chairman concurred and declared that Mody’s words would be expunged. Mody corrected himself thus: “All right then, stop braying.” The Congress member could not catch the meaning of the word ‘braying’ and it stayed on record.
•Innuendos are more mischievous than unparliamentary words. When Lohia pleaded in Parliament for Soviet leader Stalin’s daughter Svetlana Alliluyeva to be given asylum in India on the grounds of her relationship with Indian Communist leader, Brajesh Singh, Tarkeshwari Sinha mockingly asked Lohia, a bachelor, how he could talk about conjugal sentiments when he did not have any experience of it. Lohia hit back: “Tarkeshwari, when did you give me any chance?” Can the Lok Sabha Secretariat’s revised booklet foresee such innuendos?
•In The Argumentative Indian, Amartya Sen pointed out that “prolixity is not alien to us in India.” He illustrated this with V.K. Krishna Menon’s record of the longest speech ever delivered at the UN. The argumentative tradition can be traced back to the dispute between Krishna and Arjuna, quoted in the Bhagavad Gita. Both sides of the argument are given equal significance in the text. As Prof. Sen said, “A defeated argument that refuses to be obliterated can remain very alive.” In the parliamentary system, there is no room for logophobia.
📰 Backsliding on climate action
Western nations have started reinterpreting the Paris deal and look to downgrade their commitments
•Countries in Europe led by Germany, Austria and the Netherlands are cranking up their coal plants again. Coal exports to Europe are surging. Fossil fuels are making a comeback and countries are rejecting the European Union (EU)’s plan to reduce natural gas consumption by 15%. Dutch, Polish and other European farmers are protesting against emission cuts from agriculture. Renewables are nowhere near meeting the rising power demand in summer or winter, with record high temperatures now. Hasty and ill-conceived EU climate policies are coming home to roost. While the current problems are being blamed on the Ukraine conflict, and more specifically Russia, they actually started when power prices began surging well before anything happened in Ukraine. Europe is staring at a recession and its appetite for climate action is waning.
Downgrading commitments
•In the U.S. too, the Senate and the Supreme Court have struck blows to climate action. And in the U.S. too, prices of fuel started increasing last year, not just this year. This is causing inflation. Energy security is nowhere near. Fossil fuels are making a quiet comeback, since the strength of the U.S. is its oil and gas industry. That is why we have just witnessed a ‘re-calibration’ of U.S. policy towards the Gulf. The U.S.’s choice is between concentrating on its economy and getting it on track for its people or fighting hard against climate change and facing an irate electorate in November. The choice is clear.
•So, coal, oil and gas are not going anywhere in the developed world; they are, in fact, making a comeback. It was foolish to think that the world would miraculously transition, and especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, to renewables. The West had rushed to draw down on fossil fuels even before technology for renewables were in place. Many developing countries are also facing unrest due to skyrocketing energy prices, which are threatening their governments. The United Nations, unsurprisingly, continues to pillory coal. In this scenario, we may do well to remember that it was Prime Minister Narendra Modi who made ambitious pledges on climate change last year in Glasgow at the Conference of the Parties (COP). Further, when India fought to make the COP language closer to our current energy-mix reality by calling for a ‘phase down’ of coal rather than a ‘phase out’, the COP President supposedly ‘struggled to hold back tears’.
•With countries of the developed world almost sure to renege on their 2030 Paris Agreement commitments, countries of the developing world must do everything to hold the countries of the developed world to their commitments and not get unwittingly drawn into their game. In fact, the EU Commissioner of Climate Action and Energy, Miguel Arias Cañete, helpfully signalled that the U.S. can downgrade its pledge under the Paris deal. G-7 leaders met to only backtrack on their pledges. If they all start downgrading pledges, which seems almost inevitable, who do they expect will compensate? The Global South, of course.
•And so, the game is on. The Western nations have already started reinterpreting the Paris Agreement and look to downgrade their commitments. If they pull back, what will happen to the Paris deal aim of limiting global warming to below the 2°C limit (leave alone 1.5°C)? More importantly, what can the developing countries do to stop this backsliding by the developed world?
•To begin with, we need to understand how the concept of net zero is being cleverly misinterpreted. To bring this to the attention of the Global South, India, China and eight other countries from Africa, Asia and Latin America made a cross-regional statement on ‘global net zero’ on June 7 at the UN on World Environment Day. I take the liberty of referring to it at some length.
•Article 4 of the Paris Agreement defines ‘Global Peaking’ thus: “In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2, Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties.” The cross-regional statement by the 10 countries says, “We believe that the word ‘global peaking’ is a conscious and considered insertion in the Paris Agreement text with full recognition of the fact that peaking will take longer for developing countries. The developed countries, given their historical emissions, will have to peak first. That’s why the reference is to ‘global peaking’ and not ‘individual peaking’. From this, it logically follows that when developing country parties peak later than developed countries, they will also achieve net zero later than developed countries. Consequently, it is the logical conclusion of the Article 4 of the Paris Agreement that when we consider net zero, we should only consider ‘global net zero’ and not ‘individual net zero’ for 2050. Any other interpretation will be contrary to Article 4...”
•The statement further says, “It becomes clear that a global net zero, where developing countries take longer to reach net zero, can only be achieved if developed countries reach net zero earlier than 2050. Therefore, developed countries must reach net zero well before 2050 in order to achieve overall global net-zero target by around mid-century...” The statement, therefore, calls on developed countries to “do a net negative” on mitigation by 2050 rather than just “net zero”, if they are serious about fighting climate change. In effect, the West needs to do a net minus and not just net zero. To claim that by achieving net zero in 2050, they will keep the temperature within the 2°C limit is a chimera.
•Thanks to the efforts of India, the phrase used in the 2021 summit-level declarations at both G-20 and Quad is ‘global net zero’. We need to build on this understanding.
Holding their feet to the fire
•But the back-sliding has begun. One of the prime ministerial candidates in the U.K. said recently that the net zero plan “musn’t clobber people”. This is another way of saying, let’s forget about it for the present, shall we? We can’t forget about the present or the future. The “global stocktake” of the Paris Agreement will be done in 2023 to assess the world’s collective progress towards achieving the long-term goals (Article 14). In the current scenario, this stocktake may well provide the developed countries the right forum to shift the burden of their mitigation commitments on developing countries, knowing well that they will not be able to meet theirs by 2030.
•And what is happening to the plan of developed countries mobilising $100 billion per year by 2020 for climate action in developing countries? Can the Global South transition to renewables without genuine transfer of credible technology? India stands as beacon of hope in renewables. It is time for all developing countries, especially the small island developing states, to make sure that the developed world doesn’t backslide on its commitments on mitigation yet again. COP 27 in Egypt gives us that opportunity to hold their feet to the fire. It is time for the developed world to make net minus pledges. If we don’t collectively push for it, we will be collectively pushed back.
📰 The private sector boost in India’s space industry
How does a strong space sector contribute to overall development? Why are private players being encouraged to invest?
•Principal Scientific Adviser Ajay Kumar Sood stated earlier this month that the government would soon come up with a new space policy to increase private sector participation in the industry. Consultations have already been held and the final version of the policy would soon be referred to the Empowered Technology Group for further examination.
•Enhancing space technology would be beneficial to bolster connectivity and combat climate-related implications through a more secure and effective means.
•Private sector’s involvement in the long term, as with other commercial sectors, is believed to help spur investment and expertise in the realm which is capital-intensive and demands high technology.
•The story so far: Principal Scientific Adviser Ajay Kumar Sood stated earlier this month that the government would soon come up with a new space policy that could initiate the rise of India’s own “SpaceX-like ventures”. Mr. Sood stated that the proposed move would increase private sector participation in the industry. Consultations have already been held and the final version of the policy would soon be referred to the Empowered Technology Group for further examination. According to Mr. Sood, India has not tapped into its complete potential in this sector. “In 2022, the space sector is witnessing what the information technology sector experienced in the 1990s. We will have our own SpaceX (SpaceX is Elon Musk’s private space transportation company) in the next two years,” he said.
Why is development in the space sector important?
•Enhancing space technology would be beneficial to bolster connectivity and combat climate-related implications through a more secure and effective means.
•Satellites provide more accurate information on weather forecasts and assess (and record) long-term trends in the climate and habitability of a region. For example, by monitoring the long-term impact of climate change at regional, territorial, and national scales, governments would be able to devise more pragmatic and combative plans of action for farmers and dependent industries. Additionally, they can also serve as real-time monitoring and early-warning solutions against natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, wildfires, mining etc. Real-time tracking can also serve multiple purposes in defence.
•As for connectivity, satellite communication can reach more remote areas where conventional networks would require a heavy complimenting infrastructure. Additionally, as to reliability, the World Economic Forum had stated (in September 2020) that satellite communication can help connect 49% of the world’s unconnected population. In this light, it must be noted that satellite communications, which are used to facilitate telecommunication services, are among the major categories for investment in the space technology sector. Other prominent categories include spacecraft and equipment manufacturing.
•What essentially needs to be remembered is that the space avenue is an integration of the aerospace, IT hardware and telecom sectors. It is thus argued that investment in this arena would foster positive carryover effects to other sectors as well.
Where does India stand in the global space market?
•As per SpaceTech Analytics, India is the sixth-largest player in the industry internationally having 3.6% of the world’s space-tech companies (as of 2021). U.S. holds the leader’s spot housing 56.4% of all companies in the space-tech ecosystem. Other major players include U.K. (6.5%), Canada (5.3%), China (4.7%) and Germany (4.1%).
•The Indian Space Industry was valued at $7 billion in 2019 and aspires to grow to $50 billion by 2024. The country’s standout feature is its cost-effectiveness. India holds the distinction of being the first country to have reached the Mars’ orbit in its first attempt and at $75 million — way cheaper than Western standards.
•Most companies in the sector, globally, are involved in manufacture of spacecraft equipment and satellite communications. The Union Minister of State for Science and Technology Dr. Jitendra Singh had stated earlier this month that of the 60-odd start-ups that had registered with the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), a majority of them were dealing in projects related to space debris management. As space becomes more congested with satellites, the technology would thus help in managing ‘space junk’ (debris of old spacecraft and satellites).
•U.S. and Canada were the highest receivers of space-related investment in 2021. A scrutiny of SpaceTech data puts forth that U.S. alone has more companies in the sector than the next 15 countries combined. Forbes pointed out in May 2021 that, “…it helps when your country’s government budget in the realm is six times larger than its nearest competitor.” Its space budget was $41 billion in 2021, $23.3 billion of which was focused on NASA. The spur in research and innovation driven by government-led spending could also be attributed to the global concentration of considerable number of private investors in the country.
•India’s total budgetary allocation for FY2022-23 towards the Department of Space was ₹13,700 crore. Further, as per Tracxn data, funding into the sector’s start-ups (in India) nearly tripled to $67.2 million on a year-over-year basis in 2021.
How is the private sector’s involvement regulated in India?
•In June 2020, the Union government announced reforms in the space sector enabling more private players to provide end-to-end services.
•An announcement for the establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe) was made. It was mandated the task of promoting, authorising and licensing private players to carry out space activities. As an oversight and regulatory body, it is responsible for devising mechanisms to offer sharing of technology, expertise, and facilities free of cost (if feasible) to promote non-government private entities (NGPEs). . IN-SPACe’s Monitoring and Promotion Directorate oversees NGPE’s activities as per prescribed regulations and reports back in case any corrective actions or resolutions are required. ISRO shares its expertise in matters pertaining to quality and reliability protocols, documentations and testing procedure through IN-SPACe’s ‘interface mechanism’.
•Additionally, constituted in March 2019, NewSpace India Ltd (NSIL), is mandated to transfer the matured technologies developed by the ISRO to Indian industries. All of them are under the purview of the Ministry of Defence.
•Private sector’s involvement in the long term, as with other commercial sectors, is believed to help spur investment and expertise in the realm which is capital-intensive and demands high technology.
•Dr. Singh had tabled in a written reply to the Lok Sabha in June 2021 that the space sector reforms were made with the intention to provide a “level playing field” to private companies in satellites, launches and space-based services.
•The central idea was to bring forth a predictable policy and regulatory environment for them and additionally provide access to ISRO facilities and assets to improve their capacities.
